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VS
Bot is bullish on Ecuador. EV +6.3% · edge +2.2 pts · stake 39.15
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 21.3% vs market 19.0% on HOME @ 5.00 -> EV 6.3%, edge 2.2pts | stake 39.15 (0.39% bankroll, kelly 1.6%)
The math live · Ecuador @ 5.00
- Pick
- Ecuador
- Model probability
- 21.3%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 19.0%
- Edge
- +2.2 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 5.00
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 5.26
- Price implies
- 20.0%
- Expected value
- +6.3%
- Full Kelly
- 1.6%
- Books surveyed
- 22
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 39 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Ecuador hits196returned
Profit+157on win
Expected+2per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 22 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Ecuador | Draw | Germany | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0%% | ||||
| 1.0%% | ||||
| 1.6%% | ||||
| 3.1%% | ||||
| 3.2%% | ||||
| 3.6%% | ||||
| 3.6%% | ||||
| 4.1%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.5%% | ||||
| 5.8%% | ||||
| 7.2%% | ||||
| 7.3%% | ||||
| 7.7%% | ||||
| 8.0%% | ||||
| 9.1%% | ||||
| 14.7%% | ||||
| 19.2%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 5.25 | 4.04 | 1.78 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 5.26 | 4.04 | 1.78 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 5.00 | 3.82 | 1.70 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748926 — view on Solscan ↗a2be6fd7c252d0cfa02161…