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VS
Bot is bullish on Iran. EV +10.5% · edge +3.6 pts · stake 90.81
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 28.3% vs market 24.7% on AWAY @ 3.90 -> EV 10.5%, edge 3.6pts | stake 90.81 (0.91% bankroll, kelly 3.6%)
The math live · Iran @ 3.90
- Pick
- Iran
- Model probability
- 28.3%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 24.7%
- Edge
- +3.6 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 3.90
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 4.05
- Price implies
- 25.6%
- Expected value
- +10.5%
- Full Kelly
- 3.6%
- Books surveyed
- 21
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 91 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Iran hits354returned
Profit+263on win
Expected+10per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 21 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Egypt | Draw | Iran | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.9%% | ||||
| 3.0%% | ||||
| 3.0%% | ||||
| 3.4%% | ||||
| 3.4%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 5.4%% | ||||
| 5.5%% | ||||
| 5.6%% | ||||
| 6.0%% | ||||
| 6.6%% | ||||
| 7.1%% | ||||
| 7.4%% | ||||
| 7.6%% | ||||
| 7.9%% | ||||
| 9.1%% | ||||
| 14.6%% | ||||
| 18.8%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 2.15 | 3.30 | 4.10 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 2.21 | 3.32 | 4.05 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 2.10 | 3.15 | 3.90 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748935 — view on Solscan ↗490fc796de61f2b91bac32…