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VS
Bot is bullish on Draw. EV +5.1% · edge +1.9 pts · stake 41.01
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 25.6% vs market 23.7% on DRAW @ 4.10 -> EV 5.1%, edge 1.9pts | stake 41.01 (0.41% bankroll, kelly 1.6%)
The math live · Draw @ 4.10
- Pick
- Draw
- Model probability
- 25.6%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 23.7%
- Edge
- +1.9 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 4.10
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 4.21
- Price implies
- 24.4%
- Expected value
- +5.1%
- Full Kelly
- 1.6%
- Books surveyed
- 24
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 41 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Draw hits168returned
Profit+127on win
Expected+2per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 24 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Netherlands | Draw | Sweden | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3%% | ||||
| 0.6%% | ||||
| 1.4%% | ||||
| 1.8%% | ||||
| 1.8%% | ||||
| 2.3%% | ||||
| 2.4%% | ||||
| 2.9%% | ||||
| 3.3%% | ||||
| 3.4%% | ||||
| 3.7%% | ||||
| 3.7%% | ||||
| 3.8%% | ||||
| 4.3%% | ||||
| 4.9%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.2%% | ||||
| 5.4%% | ||||
| 5.5%% | ||||
| 6.0%% | ||||
| 7.4%% | ||||
| 8.9%% | ||||
| 11.3%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 4.90 | 4.20 | 8.70 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 1.78 | 4.21 | 4.96 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 1.72 | 4.10 | 4.80 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748908 — view on Solscan ↗d5f5e9120ad4e447349464…