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VS
Bot is bullish on New Zealand. EV +8.8% · edge +2.2 pts · stake 46.86
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 19.1% vs market 16.9% on HOME @ 5.70 -> EV 8.8%, edge 2.2pts | stake 46.86 (0.47% bankroll, kelly 1.9%)
The math live · New Zealand @ 5.70
- Pick
- New Zealand
- Model probability
- 19.1%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 16.9%
- Edge
- +2.2 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 5.70
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 5.91
- Price implies
- 17.5%
- Expected value
- +8.8%
- Full Kelly
- 1.9%
- Books surveyed
- 25
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 47 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If New Zealand hits267returned
Profit+220on win
Expected+4per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 25 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | New Zealand | Draw | Egypt | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5%% | ||||
| 0.5%% | ||||
| 1.6%% | ||||
| 2.3%% | ||||
| 2.7%% | ||||
| 2.7%% | ||||
| 3.6%% | ||||
| 3.8%% | ||||
| 4.1%% | ||||
| 4.1%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.3%% | ||||
| 5.0%% | ||||
| 5.2%% | ||||
| 5.2%% | ||||
| 5.2%% | ||||
| 5.3%% | ||||
| 5.4%% | ||||
| 5.6%% | ||||
| 6.3%% | ||||
| 6.4%% | ||||
| 6.4%% | ||||
| 6.7%% | ||||
| 8.1%% | ||||
| 10.0%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 6.25 | 4.35 | 1.65 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 5.91 | 4.28 | 1.67 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 5.70 | 4.15 | 1.60 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748916 — view on Solscan ↗da51db6a1a11d4b71170ca…