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VS
Bot is bullish on Draw. EV +6.0% · edge +2.5 pts · stake 47.25
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 25.5% vs market 23.0% on DRAW @ 4.15 -> EV 6.0%, edge 2.5pts | stake 47.25 (0.47% bankroll, kelly 1.9%)
The math live · Draw @ 4.15
- Pick
- Draw
- Model probability
- 25.5%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 23.0%
- Edge
- +2.5 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 4.15
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 4.34
- Price implies
- 24.1%
- Expected value
- +6.0%
- Full Kelly
- 1.9%
- Books surveyed
- 25
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 47 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Draw hits196returned
Profit+149on win
Expected+3per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 25 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Jordan | Draw | Algeria | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6%% | ||||
| 0.6%% | ||||
| 1.6%% | ||||
| 2.5%% | ||||
| 3.2%% | ||||
| 3.2%% | ||||
| 3.4%% | ||||
| 3.4%% | ||||
| 3.6%% | ||||
| 3.9%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.7%% | ||||
| 4.9%% | ||||
| 5.2%% | ||||
| 5.2%% | ||||
| 5.4%% | ||||
| 5.4%% | ||||
| 5.5%% | ||||
| 5.6%% | ||||
| 5.8%% | ||||
| 6.5%% | ||||
| 7.0%% | ||||
| 8.2%% | ||||
| 8.3%% | ||||
| 9.9%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 6.50 | 4.30 | 1.62 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 6.16 | 4.34 | 1.65 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 5.90 | 4.15 | 1.57 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748920 — view on Solscan ↗fe279e5d0274118f18f427…